Election 2020: Green party numbers on Vancouver Island

The final count will not be known for another three weeks. However as of 1:58 AM this morning, Elections BC reports that 45.03% of the known electorate voted NDP, 35.41% chose the Liberals and 15.30% the Greens. John Horgan won his majority, NDP candidate Michele Babchuk is our new MLA and the only real surprise was the Green party numbers on Vancouver Island.

Image credit: photo of Alexandra Morton – courtesy her Facebook page

Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen have both been re-elected.

The Green party has also won its first seat on the Mainland: West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky.

North Island Riding

Driving around Cortes Island recently, it’s not surprising to learn that there was a three race in North Island. We may lean further to the left than most of British Columbia, but every lawn sign I saw was Green. Alexandra Morton is currently in second place. As she is less than a hundred votes ahead of Liberal candidate Norm Facey, this could change, but it is also a pattern repeated in eight other Island ridings,* as well as Powell River-Sunshine Coast.

Michele Babchuk, NDP candidate and the new MLA for North Island – submitted photo

The rest of Vancouver Island and Powell River

Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Chris Istace trails Doug Routley (NDP) by 1,001 votes.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Nicole Duncan trails Murray Rankin (NDP) by 1,647.
Victoria-Beacon Hill, Jenn Neilson trails Jenn Neilson (NDP) by 1,777.
Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Kim Darwin trails Nicholas Simons (NDP) by 2,166.
Victoria-Swan Lake, Annemieke Holthuis trails Rob Fleming (NDP) by 2,739
Esquimalt-Mtechsin, Andy MacKinnion trails Mitzi Dean (NDP) by 3,136
Nanaimo, Lia Versaevel trails Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) by 3,857.
Langford-Juan de Fuca, Gord Baird trails Premier John Horgan (NDP) by 3,887.
Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Evan Jolicoeur trails Josie Osbourne (NDP) by 4,537.

Potential for a Green shift

While it seems unlikely that the Green Party will take any of these seats from the NDP after the final count, the Liberal party finished second in most of these ridings during the 2017 provincial election.

This is not the first election where the Green party has shown promise. In the weeks prior to the last federal election, 338Canada’s projections showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings. This melted down to two on election day, which has been the pattern up until now.

This time, the numbers suggesting potential for a Green shift come from election results.

One of the questions on a recent Angus Reid poll was what would be your second choice?

The Green Party was 20% ahead of second place NDP. (Greens 34%; NDP 14%; Liberals 10%; “Another party” 18%; Undecided 22%)

If there is a marked Green shift in the next election, or the one after that, most analysts expect it to be strongest on Vancouver Island.

Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales

Compiled from various sources. A number of ridings went through name and boundary changes that are not indicated. Example: John Horgan was elected in Malahat-Juan de Fuca in 2005, which became Juan de Fuca 2009- and has been Langford-Juan de Fuca since the 2017 election. – Roy L Hales

Compiled from various sources – Roy L Hales

Links of interest:

Footnote

*The exceptions are Parksville-Qualicum, Courtenay-Comox, and Saanich South. The Liberals are currently leading in the former riding, which is too close to call, and second place in the other two.

Top photo credit: Premier John Horgan campaigning in Vancouver – courtesy BC NDP via Flickr (CC BY SA, 2.0 License)

This program was funded by a grant from the Community Radio Fund of Canada and the Government of Canada’s Local Journalism Initiative.

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