This could become the longest election in BC recent history. Advance voting in our riding began last Thursday, October 15th, in the Campbell River Commons. Although Elections BC states it will release a preliminary count after 8 PM on election day, October 24th,  the final count begins on Nov 6, and Return day (i.e.- the official count) is expected to be Monday Nov 16th.

We may not know who wins for weeks

This means that unless there is an NDP landslide, we may not know the final result until three weeks after the election.  

There are 45,121 registered voters in the North Island riding. 

Only 63% of the electorate turned out in the last provincial election.

Statistics from Elections BC show that 10% of the electorate have taken advantage of advanced polls and another 20%, or so, applied for mail in packages. 

So what is the turnout going to be like  on October 24th? 

Cortes Island residents who wish to vote in person may do so between 8 AM and 8 PM at the Cortes Island school.

Quadra Island residents must go to the Community Centre on West Road.

Polling data

The recent poll, by Angus Reid, shows the NDP still 10 points out in front province-wide, but the Liberals and Greens are gaining. (45%, 35% and 16%, respectively)

Canada338 publishes daily projections of every riding in British Columbia.

On Vancouver Island, they currently (Oct 20th) show

• the NDP with a commanding lead in 8 of the 12 ridings;
• the Green party ahead in 3, but so narrowly that the final outcome is considered a “toss-up”;
• and the BC Liberals likely to be reelected in Parksville.

The problem with these projections is:

• they change daily, as new polling data comes in
• they rely on heavily demographic data and electoral history.
• So, how seriously should we take a projection that the Greens are leading in Oak Bay by 2%, considering that the incumbent (and former Green party leader) Andrew Weaver endorsed the NDP.
• As for our North Island riding: the Times Colonist states, “There was a relatively tight NDP-Liberal race in 2005, but the NDP wins have been more comfortable since then.” That was when Claire Trevana was the NDP candidate. In addition to the Liberals and NDP having a broad base of supporters, Green candidate Alexandra Morton’a profile is much more visible than that of any of her opponents. Will this translate into votes? If so, will there be enough? (Less than 15% of the electorate voted Green in 2017.)

Links of interest:

• articles about, or mentioning, North Island riding
• articles about the BC NDP
• articles about the BC Liberals
• articles about the BC Green party
• articles about NDP candidate Michele Babchuk
• articles about BC Liberal candidate Norm Facey
• articles about Green candidate Alexandra Morton
• articles about Conservative candidate John Twigg

Top photo credit: Masked and standing at the appropriate physical distance, Brenda Bailey and George Heyman campaign in Vancouver – courtesy BC NDP via Flickr (2.0 License)

This program was funded by a grant from the Community Radio Fund of Canada and the Government of Canada’s Local Journalism Initiative.