By Roy L Hales
The latest projection from 338Canada depict a four party race in Powell River – North Island. While the NDP incumbent, Rachel Blaney, is still ahead, the margin is so small that the NDP, Conservatives and Greens are virtually tied. The last place Liberal party is only about 7.4% behind the leader.
Benefit Of A Four Way Race
This gives voters an almost unique opportunity. Voters throughout much of Canada will be voting strategically. In Powell River – North Island, people can vote for the party they want without needing to think about the possibility they are throwing their votes away.
A similar situation exists throughout Vancouver Island. Though the Greens are leading in four ridings, there are only two “safe” ridings on the whole island. Saanich–Gulf Islands (58.6%) and Nanaimo- Ladysmith (35.4%) appear to be firmly in Green hands. Victoria (34.3%) is “leaning Green”.
338Canada classifies the other four Vancouver Island electoral races as “toss-ups.” The Greens are ahead in Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke. The NDP still lead in Cowichan–Malahat–Langford and North Island – Powell River, but the Conservatives have passed them in projections for Courtenay-Alberni.
Province wide: 338Canada’s projections depict two very tight races.
The Conservatives (30.5%) and Liberals (29.9%) are battling it out for first. (CBC’s Poll Tracker suggests the Conservatives lead is larger, 31.6% to 29.2%.)
Meanwhile, thanks to their support on Vancouver Island, 338Canada shows the Greens (18%) pulling a nose ahead of the NDP (17%). (This gap is virtually non-existent according to CBC’s Poll Tracker: 17.4% Greens to 17.3% NDP.)
Top photo credit: Campbell River at Night by Darren Kirby via Flickr (CC BY SA, 2.0 License)