Jennifer Lash recently wrote a column in which she compares the Liberal Party’s results in North Island-Powell River (NIPR) during the 2015 federal election to 2025.

“According to Elections Canada, the last time the Liberal candidate had a decent showing in the polls was in 2015 when they won 25% of the vote. In 2025, I won 26.2% of the vote. In 2015 the NDP secured  40% and won the riding however in 2025 they secured only 33% of the vote and lost. Very similar showing for the Liberals, very different results for the NDP.”

Lash’s conclusion was that the Liberals didn’t split the vote in 2025, the NDP could not hold on to their ‘vote share.’

Under Rachel Blaney, the NDP received roughly 38%–40% of the popular vote in three elections (2015, 2019, and 2021). However, Blaney did not run in 2025. With a new NDP candidate and a changing political landscape, the results shifted.

Historical Context

Campbell River has elected NDP or Conservative MPs consistently since 1979, which has led to the myth that only candidates from these two parties can be elected. The last Liberal MP for this area was Hugh Alan Anderson (1974–1979). Prior to that, there were seven Liberal MPs, starting with Arthur Bunster in 1874. While they have faded into the background in recent decades, the Liberal Party never truly disappeared from the NIPR political landscape.

The Two Party System & Comebacks

Some might argue that the Liberals have ceased to be a force in our area for decades.  A similar argument could made for the idea that under the first past the post system, all of Canada except for Quebec is gradually moving to a two party system like the United States. 

The NDP peaked in 2011, when Jack Layton led them to victory in 133 ridings. However, their seat share shrank to 7 in 2025 and, if 338Canada’s projections are correct, could shrink even further if an election were held today. Additionally, while Elizabeth May is undoubtedly one of Canada’s finest politicians, her days are numbered, leaving the future of the Green Party uncertain.

Political comebacks do happen. One of the most spectacular examples is BC’s NDP, which was virtually annihilated in the 2001 provincial election (reduced to just two seats) but returned to power in 2017. On the federal scene, the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois both recovered from their disastrous 2011 election, as did the Conservatives from 2015. The NDP’s future fate may be decided by the new leader they are electing in Winnipeg. 

The 2015 Liberal Resurgence in NIPR

While they faded into the background, the Liberals never disappeared from NIPR’s political landscape and support for them has been growing since 2004. 

The elections of 2015 and 2025 brought popular Liberal Prime Ministers to power. Justin Trudeau won his strongest majority and 184 seats in parliament. While Mark Carney only formed a minority government, this is a significant achievement considering his party’s position a year before and his popularity has soared since then. Both of these  achievements were reflected by increased numbers of Liberal voters in North Island-Powell River. 

By 2015, many Canadians were disenchanted with the Conservative government of Stephen Harper – which had been in power since 2008. Justin Trudeau rode a wave of disatisfaction into office. North Island-Powell River (NIPR) was a new riding, but the Conservatives had held the greater Campbell River area (except for two and a half years) since 1993. They were washed aside when Justin Trudeau rode a wave of dissatisfaction into office. That was the year Rachel Blaney was first elected, and the Liberals almost tied with the Conservatives in the popular vote, 25.5% to 26.2%, respectively. 

The situation was very different four years later. Canadians would wanted to see climate action were dismayed by Trudeau’s support of the fossil fuel industry and his government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. People who wanted to see a more democratic election system than first past the post were disenchanted by Trudeau’s failure to bring in proportional representation.    

In North Island-Powell River, support for the Liberals dropped from 25.5% to 13.1% during the 2019 election. The two parties that appear to have benefitted from this dissatisfaction were the Conservatives and Greens whose percentage of the popular vote jumped roughly 6% each. This was the election when the Greens led on Read Island and placed second on Quadra.

The Carney Effect

NIPR’s Liberals were not able to stage a comeback until 2025. That was the year that Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney’s Liberals won enough seats to form a minority government. The NDP, meanwhile, lost so many seats that they no longer have official party status. 

These results were reflected in North Island-Powell River. Under newcomer Tanille Johnston, the NDP vote dropped 7%.

Meanwhile support for the Conservatives had been steadily growing in every election since 2015 and Aaron Gunn was elected in 2025. 

There are several big stories in the background: with one exception, voters on Cortes, Quadra and Read Islands consistently chose the NDP as their first pick; support for the Greens has sank to its sank lowest level since 1988 and the Liberals have reappeared as a contender. 

According to the March 22, 2026 projections from 338Canada, they may now be nudging ahead of the NDP out in terms of popular support. This is Mark Carney’s doing. Few doubt that he would win a massive majority if the election were held today.

Links of Interest:

• Articles about, or mentioning, Mark Carney
• Jennifer Lash’s website
• Articles about, or mentioning, Rachel Blaney
• Articles about, or mentioning, Aaron Gunn
• Elections Canada website

Top image credit: Liberal supporters in Comox during the 2025 election – courtesy Jennifer Lash for North Island Powell River Facebook page

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