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Politics

How the election might have turned out, if it had been on Sunday October 13.

338Canada’s latest projection, taken on Sunday October 13, shows the NDP may be heading towards a majority government. 

The NDP were leading in 49 ridings, but in 6 of these only by a narrow margin.

The Conservative Party of BC was leading in 42 ridings, but in 7 by a nose.

Our own North Island riding is one of the the latter. Conservative candidate Anna Kindy is currently projected as a nose ahead of incumbent Michele Babchuk, 45% to 43%. As the margin of error for these projections is 7%, it is actually too close to call.

Screenshot of artwork in DEMOCRACY IN A BOX KIT ACTIVITY BOOKLET – Elections BC

A new projection came out Sunday, and the principle change appears to be more people turning to the Green Party. Prior to the  the televised all-candidates debate on October 8, it looked like they might be reduced to a single seat (Saanich North and the Islands). Saturday’s projection suggested Furstenau has taken  taken a 6 point lead in Victoria-Beacon, as of Sunday that lead is 9%.

On Saturday, the Greens were only 2% behind in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. This is where Green candidate Jeremy Valeriote lost by a mere 60 votes in 2020. Sunday’s projection shows them tied with the Conservatives at 37% each. 

The Greens also appear to be narrowing the gap in Furstenau’s old riding, Cowichan Valley, where John Kouri was 9% behind the NDP on Saturday. On Sunday, it was only 6%. 

At the moment the Green Party appears to be leading or in a very close race for 4 seats. They also currently do appear to be gaining momentum and hope to send MLA’s from 6 ridings to the next legislature. 

North Island is not one of the six. The latest projection shows the Green candidate at a mere 13%.

Of course these statistics are the at best the most likely results if the election were yesterday. There are still five days until the election. 

“The 338Canada model uses a mostly proportional swing model with regional adjustments. What is a proportional model? For instance, if a party goes from 30% to 33% in the poll aggregate, an increase of 10% (3 points over 30), then this party’s score goes up by 10% in every district (if said party is at 15% in a district X, then its score goes up to 16.5% (an increase of 1.5 point of 15). Also taken into consideration is the electoral history of regions and districts, which helps set giving probabilistic floors and ceilings for each party,” wrote Philippe J. Fournier, creator of 338Canada.

“Of course, mostly proportional does not mean exclusively proportional. The 338Canada model also uses demographic data: Careful considerations is given to demographics of each district, such as median and average household income, age distribution, language most spoken at home, etc. This data is used to make statistical correlations of voting intention swings between regions and districts.”

This methodology has been employed in 13 general elections so far and, according to Fournier, successfully identified the winners in 1,489 out of 1,657 district races (i.e. – a 89.9% success rate). 338Canada picked the wrong candidate, but was still within the margin of error (moe), 99 times. They made a wrong choice, which was outside the moe, 69 times.

When all factors (negative and positive) are taken into account: the range of possible outcomes for the NDP currently translated into from 36 to 61 seats; the Conservatives from 32 to 53 and Green Party 1-4. 

If one of these parties is elected in 47 ridings, they can form a majority government. 

338Canada calculated the NDP’s chance of winning this election as 67% and the odds of their having a majority 62%. 

The Conservatives chances of winning was 32%, with the odds of their having a majority only 27%.

There was a 2% chance of a tie, which would put the Green party in a position to decide which party would form the next government.” 

Of course, it is still 5 days until the election. These figures are at best a point-in-time peek into what the election MIGHT have looked like, if it had been on Sunday, October 13.

There are several big questions for election day. Will the NDP win enough seats to form a majority government? Will the Green Party continue to gain momentum? And what’s happening with the Conservatives, can they come back to win the day?

Links of Interest

Note: This article was originally published on October 13 and more data added when it was used for a broadcast the following day.

Top photo credit: A composite of John Rustad, David Ebby and Sonia Furstenau – made up of photos from their respective campaign websites

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