NDP Surge Forward In Vancouver Island Voter Projections

By Roy L Hales

A week ago, 338Canada’s projections showed Green candidates leading in five of Vancouver Island’s seven ridings. The situation map displayed two colours: green and (Conservative) blue. As of October 7, orange is once again prominent as the NDP surge forward to take the lead in three ridings.

NDP Surge Forward

Greens Lead on Vancouver Island
The Green lead in Vancouver Island projections has shrunk to 6% Chart 1: Data from 338Canada, chart by Roy L Hales

They still trail the Greens by 6% in the overall projected percentages, but are once challenging them in one of the four ridings that the Greens appeared to have taken as their own. For the moment, at least, NDP incumbent Randall Garrison is once again depicted in the lead for Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke. (The final outcome in this riding is too dificult to predict.)

NDP surge forward
Screenshot of the projections depicted as of October 7, 2019
NDP surge forward in 4 ridings
NDP Surge Forward in Four Ridings, Taking the Lead in three – Data from 338Canada. chart by Roy L Hales

Powell River – North Island

Data from 338Canada, chart by Roy L Hales

For the first time in over a month, NDP incumbent Rachel Blaney is once again shown leading in projections for Powell River – North Island, though by less than one percentage point. This amounts to a statistical tie.


Data from 338Canada, chart by Roy L Hales

The NDP, Greens and Conservatives have all taken the lead in projections for Cowichan -Malahat-Langford at one point or another during this race, but as of this morning the riding is depicted as “Leaning NDP.”