The federal election in North Island–Powell River (NIPR) may be far closer than recent projections suggest, but the ‘progressive’ vote is split between three parties (Green. Liberal and NDP). Some people are urging voters to rally behind a single alternative to Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn.

The Votewell and Smart Voting websites both declared the strategic vote in our riding  is the NDP candidate Tanille Johnson. As of Thursday, April 17, Johnson became the 18th Canadian candidate officially endorsed by Lead Now. So did the participants in a recent virtual townhall meeting on Cortes Island.   

Strategic Voting

 “We decided that NDP candidate Tanille Johnston is the strategic vote in our riding and then we talked about strategies for spreading the word so that we stop the vote split on the center slash left side of the political spectrum,” explained Max Thaysen, who organized the townhall. 

Some of the participants would have preferred a Green or Liberal candidate, but they unanimously agreed the strategic choice was the NDP and have bestowed a certificate on behalf of the Cortes Island citizen-led townhall on stopping the vote split of the ABC (anyone but Conservative) voters on the NDP. 

“For the past 50 years,  this riding has been NDP or Conservative,” said Thaysen.

There has not been a Liberal MP elected in this area since 1974, when it was still part of the old Comox–Alberni riding. There has never been a Green MP. 

In her recent visit to Cortes Island, Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash declared it was time for this to change:

“I think we are on the cusp of something really amazing in this riding. Never before have we had a progressive Member of Parliament who’s also been in government.”

“I think Rachel Blaney is an amazing person. I know her, I’ve hosted her in my home. I think she’s great. I think she worked really hard for the riding. It’s not her fault that they weren’t in power, and it makes a big difference.” 

“I know this, I spent two years working as an advisor to the Minister. It makes a big difference when you’re in government and you have access to the conversations and the policies and programs that are being developed. I truly feel like this is the moment where we flip the switch, where we change things and the strategic vote becomes Liberal.” 

On April 18, the Liberal party posted Mainstreet Research’s projections for North Island Powell River on their Facebook page. This is a firm based in Toronto, and their figues are taken from province wide polls which do not necessarily reflect voter intentions in our riding. Vancouver Island voters usually do not comply with provincial trends. However if the election had taken place that day, Mainstreet suggests 45.9% of the vote would have gone to Aaron Gunn. The Liberals trailed at 22.8% and the NDP at 19.4%. Consequently, Mainstreet declared the riding is a ‘safe CPC pick-up.’  

Votewell (out of Victoria) and Smart Voting (a Canadian initiative whose base of operations is not specified) both follow 338Canada, a universally recognized projection platform whose forecast for North Island Powell River on Sunday, April 20, was the Conservatives at somewhere between 35%- 51%, the NDP trailing at 21%-35% and Liberals at 16%-28%. Note that when you factor in the margin of error,  as I just did, 338Canada’s numbers show there is a chance that the NDP and Conservatives are tied. However 338Canada stated the riding will ‘likely’ go Conservative. 

Thaysen’s group also uses Poliwave, a relatively new electoral projection platform, which suggested that, as of Friday April 18, the Conservative lead had shrunk to 4%. They were expected to receive 41% of the vote, the NDP were just behind them at 37% and the Liberals trailed considerably behind at 18%. 

According to Green party candidate Jessica Wegg, the NDP and Liberals are cancelling each other out and the strategic vote is Green.

“This is a great time to feel like you can vote Green because it’s not a wasted vote,  we need 2% nationally.”

The Green Party needs at least a 2% of the popular vote to qualify for a partial reimbursement of their election expenses.

Given that none of these projections are likely to factor in the recent controversy surrounding Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn, it seems likely that the Conservatives are weaker in our riding than the projections suggest. The question is how much weaker? Could they be trailing the NDP? Or do the Conservatives have sufficient support to overcome this?  

The Gunn Controversy

Aaron Gunn is a Conservative commentator and documentary filmmaker who has faced criticism for a series of tweets questioning whether residential schools constituted a genocide. On October 27, 2022, every member of Parliament – including Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre recognized that Canada’s residential schools were carrying out a ‘genocide.’ 

In one of his tweets, Gunn states, “There was no genocide.” In another he wrote, “I understand that people have a misinformed view of history which they have reached following a steady and persistent attempt to discredit Canada’s past in order to undermine its institutions and future.” 

These posts, along with his broader online tone and statements on LGBTQ+ issues, has sparked opposition from Indigenous leaders, advocacy groups, and members of the local community.

Max Thaysen: “ He might’ve been confused about the word genocide. I could have some like appreciation for that because for lots of people it means different things but  he didn’t apologize for the harm  that caused when people take that to mean that they’re denying the harms of the residential school system. That was a big one and just the way that he handled that also indicated to me that he’s not a trustworthy, well-intentioned person who can do democracy and representation.” 

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has stood by Gunn and rejected calls to remove him as the candidate. Still, concerns persist about Gunn’s availability and approach to public engagement.

Max Thaysen: “ I’ve been spending more time in the political realm and I have been very surprised a few times at how seriously some of our representatives take their role as impartial representatives of all members of the region.  It’s pretty inspiring when people have those kind of principled commitments to democracy and broad representation.”

“The fact that Aaron Gunn has been avoiding the public as much as he has not showing up for all candidates debates, not even responding to invitations in many cases,  canceling a lot of events lately. It just seems clear  that will translate to him not being available to the public if he were  to take office and certainly not being accountable,  responsible and representing  the diverse views of this riding.”

 The Conservatives have tended to avoid giving interviews to media, especially at the local level, ever since the Harper era.  

Max Thaysen: “ It’s not a secret that Poilievre, like Donald Trump, thinks the media is against him. So he’s got a plan to defund the CBC, and, which by the way, is in contravention of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission calls to action, which suggests that the CBC funding should be increased.”

While Conservative, Liberal and NDP volunteers are pounding on doors throughout most of North Island Powell River, this isn’t really an option in sparsely populated areas like Cortes Island. 

 Cortes Currents: What does your committee plan to do?

Max Thaysen: “Last night I was just organizing as a citizen. I  thought that we should have a community conversation about strategic voting and decide together.  That said,  the crew from last night did decide that we wanted to  spread the word and make an announcement.  I put together a post for the Tideline and I’ll probably link that over to Facebook. There’s some resources attached to that for anybody who wants to help spread the word.” 

“There might still be people out there who are thinking about voting Liberal as a strategic option, which confuses me but some people  just watch national news. At the national scale  the Liberals are the strategic choice to stop the Conservatives, but at the riding level the strategic vote is the NDP.  Getting that word out  is the goal of the crew that got together last night.” 

“I’m working with people around the riding, and in Courtenay-Alberni, who are also  diverse political leanings, but concerned about splitting the vote and getting Conservative candidates, especially Conservative candidates with extreme views.” 

“Reaching non-voters is something that lots of us are working on and apparently that’s disproportionately young folks. So  if people out there listening, or reading, today have young folks in their lives, maybe chat with them about politics, what’s going on and why it matters.”

“We face existential threats to society, to the things that we’ve come to appreciate about living in the modern world, like healthcare and security. Climate change is a major emergency and we are very much running out of time. This election doesn’t solve those problems, but it can make them worse and it can make them better.  We need to be moving in the direction of better and then work really hard after April 28.” 

The Road to April 28

In his twitter feed, Aaron Gunn urged voters to “Make sure you get out to vote for change and common sense.”

On Friday April 18, the day Advance polls opened across Canada,  Former Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould declared her support for Tanille Johnson.  

Elections Canada would later report a record turnout across the nation: 2 million voters!

Campbell River voters experienced a one hour wait at the Maritime Heritage Centre.

The only day of advance voting on Cortes Island was Saturday. Arriving at the Cortes Island School fifteen minutes after the poll opened, I found the parking lot full and 17 people already ahead of me in the line. The line was twice that size when I left, half an hour later.

At this point it is difficult to say how many ‘progressive’ voters will vote strategically, or even what the correct strategic vote is.

Canada appears to be heading towards a Liberal majority government. It is more difficult to say what the outcome will be in North Island Powell River, but strategic voting sites like Votewell (Chart above) and Smart Voting, the independent citizens advocacy group Lead Now and the little Townhall group on Cortes Island all believe the strategic vote is Tanille Johnson. 

Links of Interest:

• Articles about the 2025 election
• Articles about, or mentioning, Aaron Gunn.
• Articles about or mentioning, Tanille Johnson.
• Articles about or mentioning, Jennifer Lash.
• Articles about, or mentioning, Jessica Wegg.

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