All posts by Ray Grigg

The Quadra Project: Structural Change

Systems are complicated. Indeed, we are just beginning to understand how complicated and unpredictable they are. And they include everything from biological ecologies to global weather.

Systems are integrated. Each part of a system is connected to all the other parts, so that any change in any part influences all the other parts. Usually, small changes are absorbed into the system with little apparent effect. But introduce enough changes, or alter key components, and something unpredictable happens. In Systems Theory, this is called “emergence”, and is marked by a sudden and unpredictable restructuring of the entire system.

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The Quadra Project: In Memoriam, Yurii Kerpatenko (1976 – 2022)

No one on Quadra Island is likely to have known Yurii Kerpatenko. He never lived here and he never visited here. Had he been alive on November 15th, 2022, he probably wouldn’t have noticed that his longer life was adding a mere half a second to the arrival of the 8th billion person to Earth’s human population. Yurii Kerpatenko would not have cared because of other pressing concerns.

These concerns were more than symbolic, and they relate to us on our little island in the wholeness of things because we are able to live in a society of law and order, to go about our daily affairs without fear, to trust that one day will be as normal as another, and to freely express our opinions without state censorship or physical oppression.

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The Quadra Project: Environmental Guilt

More and more sobering news on the environmental condition of our planet keeps coming from scientists, from the United Nations’ COP meetings, and from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We are not doing enough to avert catastrophe, and we are not doing what must be done fast enough. Indeed, we never did enough fast enough, a conclusion that comes with the burden of guilt. And now we may be reaching the point where we will never be able to do enough fast enough.

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The Quadra Project – 1.5 Degrees Celsius

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016, with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

At the COP 27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022, only a few countries have updated their required annual carbon cutting emission targets for this year, and the United Nations’ Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has described present efforts as so “woefully inadequate” that we are setting the world on track to “catastrophe”. Indeed, current CO2 emissions are rising at 1- 2% per year rather than going down 5-7% per year. Even under the voluntary “nationally determined contributions” of individual nations, emissions are expected to rise by 2030, in contrast to the nearly 50% reduction needed to keep the temperature rise at 1.5°C. At present emission levels, we are committed to a global temperature increase of 2.8°C by the end of the century.

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The Quadra Project: Humanity’s Choice

Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, said in his introductory comments at the COP 27 meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022, “Humanity has a choice: either co-operate or perish.”

This is simply because we are one humanity, living on one planet. Whether we recognize it or not, the time for differences is over. All the imagined parts that we thought were separate, are interconnected. Whatever happens in one place has an effect everywhere.

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