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Politics

Polls Suggest Gap Narrowing Nationally, And In Our Riding

After trailing far behind in the polls for the better part of two years, the Liberal party’s prospects appear to be on the rise nationally, and the gap between the Conservatives and NDP is narrowing in our riding. Canada’s two leading political forecasting websites, 338Canada and CBC’s poll tracker,  still show the Conservatives in the front, but no longer predict a Conservative majority. Last week Ipsos and EKOS both released polls showing the Liberal party edging into the lead. However Innovative Research,  Abacus Data, Leger, and Nanos all reported the Conservatives were still ahead.  

Parliament Hill in Ottawa – Photo by Local Hero (own work) via Wikipedia (Public Domain)

On Thursday, CBC’s Poll Tracker reported the weighed average of all these polls showing the Conservatives still had 40% of the popular vote, the Liberals trailing with 31%, NDP with 14% and Greens had only 4%.

338Canada’s projection, released Sunday, March 2, showed the gap narrowing. The Conservatives were still leading, but with 39% of the popular vote to the Liberals 33%. The NDP and Greens remained unchanged.

Using data from 338Canada

A special feature of 338Canada’s projections is the breakdowns for every riding. 

North Island-Powell River is still regarded as a safe Conservative seat, but the gap between the two leading parties shrank 5% during the past week. The Conservatives now have 47%, NDP 29% and Greens 6%. If there was a Liberal candidate, 15% of the population may have chosen her or him. As there is no Liberal candidate, a significant number of those people would probably choose NDP. If they all did, there would only be a 3% gap between the Conservatives and NDP.   

Given the speed in which the political situation is changing, it is important to realize that none of this data was collected after Tuesday, February 25. On a National level, the gap between the two leading parties has most likely narrowed. Similarly, the NDP are probably doing better than what the projection shows for North Island-Powell River. 

Top image credit: Composite compiled from Campaign photos of Aaron Gunn (Conservative Party), Tanille Johnson (NDP) and Jessica Wegg (Greens)

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