Efforts to highlight the significant dangers of global warming do not
seem to be successful. Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the
principal cause, have combined with methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O) to speed the increase, despite decades of warnings. Global
temperatures are rising, scientists are desperately trying to focus
our attention on the seriousness of the problem, and despite
international pledges, national targets, corporate promises and
individual efforts, little of significance has been accomplished.
Significant strides in renewable energy sources have been made,
however much of this added power is not replacing fossil fuels but
supplementing them. The International Energy Agency has predicted that oil consumption could peak about 2030. We have made some progress by averting the worst of the worst future climate possibilities. But humanity has now surpassed the 1.5°C first target of temperature rise proposed in the Paris Agreement of 2015, and the pre-eminent American climate scientist, James Hansen, was prescient enough even a year ago to declare the 2.0°C target “dead”. (The Guardian Weekly, February 4. 2025).

We have been aware of the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere from the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million to
the current level of 427.67 ppm as of February 5, 2026, up from 426.70
ppm in the previous year. (Readings after February 5 are
“unavailable”, presumably because of constraints imposed by the Trump
administration.) This rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration correlates
directly to the rise in global temperatures. But it has not
significantly changed human behaviour. Something about the information has not caught our attention and not triggered the concerted effort that the situation demands. Not even the intensification of storms, floods, droughts and weather anomalies have sparked the panic that should now be motivating all humanity with the unified urge to address this ominous problem. Is the information too disconnected from human experience? Or, perhaps, too abstract to mean anything?

Statistics can be lethal to insightful understanding. Comparing 280
ppm to 427.67 ppm does not convey much useful information to most
people. Well, here’s another way of considering the problem.

Earth’s average temperature, without any global warming from
greenhouse gases, would be –18°C. That is the amount of warming that
we get directly from sunshine. The comfortable zone for normal life
comes from the greenhouse effect of radiant heat reflecting back to
the Earth’s surface. Before the Industrial Revolution, the temperature
of the planet remained fairly stable at about 13.84°C. This 13.84°C is
Earth’s normal temperature. In the last half century it has increased
rapidly. The global average temperature in 2020 was 15.11°C, a rise of
1.27°C, according to Climate Change Tracker. And the global
temperature in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth, rose 1.44°C,
bringing the Earth’s global average to 15.28°C.

That statistic, alone, should be alarming because it is simple, clear,
and we can feel and notice it as milder winters, hotter summers, later
autumns and earlier springs. We can also experience it as more unusual
weather. But that temperature increase of 1.44°C is the global
average, calculated from the measurements at thousands of stations
around the planet. Locally, however, some days are much hotter than
usual, while others are much colder. A 1.0°C temperature increase
raises humidity by 7% but causes a 14% increase in precipitation. But
this phenomenon is not transferred directly to the local situation. So
some places will get months of rain in hours, then may get no rain for
months. The damaging cycle of floods, droughts and fires becomes more
common. Agriculture becomes more difficult. The reduced temperature
differential between the tropics and the poles slows the jet stream,
causing exceptionally cold weather to wander farther south than
normal, or causing very hot southern weather to track to high northern
latitudes. All weather can now potentially become abnormal. And a
hotter planet means hotter oceans, which translates to storms becoming
more intense more quickly, making predictions more difficult and
warnings less timely.

Would it help to influence human awareness and change human behaviour if, instead of citing the concentrations of carbon dioxide, the global average temperature became the standard measure of warming on our beleaguered planet? Maybe the current numbers, compared with the previous year’s numbers, would correlate more closely to our
experience and elicit more concern. Advertise the pre-industrial
13.84°C with the current 15.28°C as a reminder of what is actually
happening here on Earth. We could post 15.28°C throughout 2026 in prominent places in every town and city so that everyone becomes aware of the number and what it means, perhaps as a reminder of the storms, floods, droughts, fires and weather extremes that might have affected us. Maybe designate the first day of February 2027 as an annual Earth’s Temperature Day. Should the average global temperature come down or go up, then we would be duly instructed. Imagine all humanity expectantly waiting for that special announcement, as they presently do for the New Year’s countdown.

We need an accurate and meaningful measure of what we are doing on
this planet, and what the consequences will be. Our future is really
just a matter of degrees.

Ray Grigg for Sierra Quadra

Top image credit: Sea Levels will rise as the polar caps melt – Image by Andrea Della Adriano via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)