Tag Archives: 2.0°C

The Quadra Project: Uninhabitable – Part 1

A global temperature review of 2024 confirms the trend that has been so concerning to climatologists. The last 10 years have been the warmest on record, and 2024 has been the warmest yet. The European Copernicus calculation measured 2024 as 1.6°C above the pre-industrial temperature, with most days being above the 1.5°C aspirational target set by the Paris Agreement (COP21) in 2015. Other organizations measured a slightly different temperature for 2024: NASA at 1.47°C, NOAA at 1.46°C, and Berkley Earth at 1.62°C. The differences are technical but the trend is the same. Global temperatures are rising in concert with our greenhouse gas emissions.

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Global Average Temperatures Of Select Nations: A Report Card

While the world has already reached the threshold of a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures, many scientists believe it is still possible to get back on track. According to the 2023 UN Emissions Gap Report, this would require a 42% cut in our emissions. It would take a 28% reduction to keep emissions below 2.0°C by the end of this century. A tool on the Berkeley Earth website shows each nation’s emissions in 2022, their current trajectory by 2100 and where it could be if all net zero pledges are met. 

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On the Threshold of a 1.5°C World

While there is some disagreement as to whether we have crossed the 1.5°C threshhold set at COP 21 in Paris, scientists agree that we are on the brink and 2024 was the hottest year on record.

At COP 29 last November, Jim Skea, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explained, “Children born today will not know a world without climate change. The IPCC has shown that we, and furthermore they, will live in a world marked by more intense storms, exceptional heatwaves, devastating floods and droughts, a world where food chains are disrupted, and where diseases reach new countries.”

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Our Fair Share: Climate Crisis Workshop on Cortes Island

“A ccording to NASA, if we look back 800,000 years, we can see that carbon dioxide concentration fluctuated between roughly 180 and  280 parts per million and just in the geological blink of an eye, we have sent that  parts per million up to just about 400. So we’re getting very close to a doubling of CO2 relative to where it has been for a long time.” 

That quote was Max Thaysen, from the Climate Action Network, explaining one of the slides  (top of page) shown at ‘Our Fair Share,’ an interactive online climate solutions workshop held in Mansons Hall on Thursday, October 3, 2024. 

The event was hosted by the Climate Action Committee. 

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Old Habits – The Quadra Project

Some old habits are difficult to break. Since the global pledge to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, 30 years of half-hearted trying has not stopped them from going up rather than down. The result is exactly as scientific modelling has predicted—global temperatures are rising. The year 2023 was the hottest in about 125,000 years after temperature records were recorded for consecutive months from June to December of 2023, and then for January and February of 2024. The final calculations for 2023 indicate that we have reached 1.32°C above the pre-industrial temperature, exceeding the 2019 record by 0.4°C. Yes, it’s a warmer El Niño year, but that only accounts for 0.2°C of the 1.32°C. New 2024 calculations indicate we have reached 1.48°C above historical levels.

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