Aaron Gynn speaking into a microphone
Politics

BC Conservative leadership bids cropping up, but party politics remain perilous

Canada’s National Observer, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

Potential leadership candidates for the BC Conservative Party are rapidly emerging after the party’s near implosion and the forced removal of John Rustad last week. 

At this stage, many of the higher profile candidates, including newly elected federal Conservative MP Aaron Gunn and former BC Liberal premier Christie Clark, are playing coy, floating social media messages that suggest they are open to running, but reserving the right of refusal. 

Gunn declined an interview with Canada’s National Observer, however, the BC MP for North Island-Powell River said he’ll likely make a final decision by the end of next week. 

Gunn said Wednesday he was seriously considering a leadership run after getting numerous encouraging calls, including from constituents. Shows of support for his bid from some fellow federal Conservatives, such as York-Durham MP Jacob Mantle or Michael Guglielmin, MP for Vaughan-Woodbridge, are starting to pop up on social media. 

A new website has also been launched to garner support and donations for a bid by Kerry-Lynne Findlay, former federal Conservative MP for South Surrey-White Rock, although she has yet to formally confirm her run. 

Caroline Elliott, a conservative commentator and former candidate for BC United in West Vancouver-Capilano, is championed in a similar website and social media campaign pushing a leadership run. She has also not confirmed her bid. Elliott, former vice president of the BC United party and sister-in-law to former party leader Kevin Falcon, reportedly helped broker the deal that saw the party fold to clear the path for the BC Conservatives last provincial election. 

Gavin Dew, the BC Conservative MLA for Kelowna Mission, who formerly ran for the leadership of BC United, has said he’s taking time over the holidays to make a decision.  

Dew was one of the top contenders in a survey of 15 potential BC Conservative leadership candidates last month. Former Surrey mayor and federal Conservative MP Dianne Watts led the pack, followed by Clark, Dew, independent MLA Elenore Sturko, and Gunn, the Research Co. poll suggests.

To date, Watts hasn’t signalled she is considering a run for the BC Conservative leadership. Watts ceded her federal Conservative seat in 2017 to make an unsuccessful bid for the BC Liberal leadership. 

Sturko, a former BC United MP, who defected to the BC Conservatives but was later ousted from the party after clashing with Rustad, has said she won’t be running in the leadership race. 

Clark’s mixed messaging 

Clark appears to be sending mixed messages about her interest in running for the BC Conservative leadership. 

In a social media post Tuesday celebrating her win of the BC Liberal leadership 15 years ago, Clark said: “I’ll always be grateful for the chance to serve, and for the people who made it possible.” 

The following day, she suggested it “might be time for someone new” to lead the party, while cautioning the provincial Conservatives to focus on the economy and avoid distractions because “kooky” parties don’t get voted into power. Rustad’s tenure as leader was marred by infighting, often about how much free rein caucus members had to speak their minds.

Clark may simply be testing the waters for support and taking time to assess what her chances are before entering the race too early, said pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., a public opinion firm.

While she was a radio broadcast host, Clark had also originally dismissed that she’d run to head up the BC Liberal party after former leader Gordon Campbell stepped down in 2010. She ended up defying the odds against her to squeak a victory from Kevin Falcon and lead the party a couple of months later, Canseco said. 

Gunn’s complicated history

Gunn may be a potential front-runner for the leadership as one of the architects for the BC Conservatives’ electoral comeback, Canseco said. But Gunn still faces significant hurdles and possible risks to his federal seat to re-ignite his provincial political ambitions, Canseco added. 

Gunn was blocked from running for the BC Liberal leadership in 2021 after party executives said his candidacy was inconsistent with the commitment to reconciliation and diversity. 

Gunn has repeatedly drawn fire for his history of inflammatory social media posts, including during his run for his federal seat. First Nations leaders say his posts promote residential school denialism. Online statements by Gunn have also asserted there are only two genders, and argued that  pay gaps between men and women and systemic racism are myths. 

However, following his rejection by the BC Liberals, Gunn and his supporters, including Angelo Isidorou and Aisha Estey, formed the Common Sense BC advocacy group to influence conservative politics in the province. 

Soon after, a number of the group’s members were elected to the BC Conservative party board in 2022, including Isidorou and Estey, who are now respectively the party’s executive director and president. They were also involved in the push to remove Rustad as leader. 

Gunn, despite his popularity with many members of the BC Conservatives, may be a hard sell for the former BC Liberals in the party, Canseco said. 

The next party leader must do what Rustad failed to do and unite the still-existing divisive factions in the party, by appealing to both the right-wing and central members of the Conservatives, he added. 

Additionally, leadership races rarely are “unifying” as party members like to suggest, said Canseco, noting bad blood between various MPs followed after Clark and Falcon won the Liberal leadership races in the past. 

“If history has taught us anything, it’s that a leadership race is very rarely a time of unity for political parties — and when it comes to centre-right politics in BC, even less so than most.” 

Top image credit: Recently elected North Island-Powell River MP, Aaron Gunn, is “seriously considering” reviving his provincial ambitions to make a run for the BC Conservative Party leadership. – File photo Rochelle Baker

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