A new interactive dashboard on the Institute for Research on Public Policy website measures the vulnerability that specific Canadian communities have in the US trade war.
“Canada’s reliance on the U.S. market has left certain communities vulnerable to shifting trade policies, including tariffs and protectionist measures,” explained Rachel Samson, the IRPP’s vice-president of research.
“Our dashboards can help identify which communities could experience challenges if tariffs are applied to sectors they depend on, allowing governments to work with the community to plan effective responses.”
The data is organized around Canada’s 293 census divisions.
For example, ‘Strathcona’ is none other than the Strathcona Regional District and its largest population centre is Campbell River. There are 20,305 workers, roughly 17.2% of which are in sectors that export products. The largest identifiable group were 635 farmers, but only 11% of Canada’s farm products are normally exported. The 180 people working in gas and oil extraction and 130 with seafood are much more vulnerable. 63% and 58% of this sector’s products, respectively, are normally destined for foreign markets. There are also 105 people involved in wood product manufacture and about 41% of this usually leaves the country.
This data looks a little different when applied to Cortes Island. While most of our shellfish are exported, the island’s farms and sawmills produce for the local market.
This was anticipated in the dashboard, “Our industry exposure metric is based on national averages, which don’t necessarily reflect actual trade in census divisions. Some communities may have a lot of employment in highly exposed industries at the national level, but these same industries may not be as exposed at the local level.”
The dashboard is also limited to direct exposure. There are no metrics to calculate what effect it will have on other sectors if, for example, the 180 people in Strathcona’s gas and oil industry have less money to spend on other products and services. Or what aspects like higher gas prices could mean to tourism or local business.
Overall, the IRPP dashboard calculates Strathcona’s workforce exposure as about 2.6%.
While the number of people is far larger, Greater Vancouver’s exposure is 2.8%, Nanaimo 2.0% and ‘Capital’ (Greater Victoria) 1.5%.
Bulkley-Nechako, in the Interior, is the province’s most exposed division (5.6%). 4,785 workers are effected and 1,700 of them are employed in wood products manufacturing.
The province’s least vulnerable division (1.2%) is Bella Bella, where there are 15 people in the seafood sector, 30 hunting, fishing or trapping and 15 on farms.
Links of Interest:
Top image credit: Cortes Island’s #1 export is oysters – Photo by Tommaso Cantelli on Unsplash
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