Tag Archives: Research co

Split vote lifted Gunn to victory despite controversy

By Rochelle Baker and Sonal Gupta, Canada’s National Observer, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

Controversial Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn ended his successful campaign the same way he started it: by keeping his whereabouts secret and avoiding questions from the media.

Gunn, whose inflammatory social media history drew national attention and widespread calls for his removal as candidate, was elected in North Island-Powell River with 39% of the vote. He flipped the riding, defeating NDP candidate Tanille Johnston, who garnered 33% of the vote. Liberal Jennifer Lash carried 26% and Green Jessica Wegg drew 2%.

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Jennifer Lash Talks About Polls and Cancelled Debates in North Island–Powell River

With only five days of campaigning left until the election, Liberal candidate Jennifer Lash says the energy on the ground in North Island–Powell River is palpable.

 “We’ve been door knocking, doing ‘meet and greets’ and town halls and phone banking. I am  hearing just an amazing amount of support. So I’m loving it,” she said. 

“This poll to me reflects  what people are telling us. So I am optimistic that the undecided will come over and join us and that we can send a Liberal to Ottawa.” 

She was referring to the poll that Mainstreet Research released on Monday, April 21, which is one of the reasons I wanted to speak with her. You can access it on the Mainstreet website, but need to pay. I also wanted to ask about last night’s all candidates meeting in Campbell River, which was cancelled at the last minute.

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Poll Shows Conservatives With Marked Lead in North Island—Powell River

With just six days remaining until election day, a new poll reveals the Conservatives hold a strong lead in the North Island—Powell River riding. Among the 402 eligible voters surveyed between April 17 and April 19, 45% said they intend to vote for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn.

NDP candidate Tanille Johnston trails in second with 23%, followed by Liberal contender Jennifer Lash at 13%. Both Jessica Wegg of the Green Party and Paul Macknight of the People’s Party received 2% support, while independent candidate Glen Staples sits at 1%. Meanwhile, 15% of voters remain undecided.

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Polls Suggest Liberals Increasing Their Lead

The seven most recent polls show Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead in what has largely become a two party election. Both 338Canada and CBC Poll Tracker project a Liberal majority, if the election were held today. 

“The Liberals are continuing to climb in the polls and are widening their lead over the Conservatives, putting them deeper into majority territory. The Conservatives are holding their vote but it is the steep slide for the New Democrats, who have dropped into the single-digits in popular support, that is contributing to the rise in the Liberals’ numbers,” wrote Éric Grenier on the Poll Tracker website.

“Not only do polls continue to show momentum for the incumbent Liberals, but new data shows Mark Carney now leads Poilievre in several other metrics—suggesting the LPC may not have reached its ceiling just yet,” stated Phillipe J Fournier of 338Canada.

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