With just six days remaining until election day, a new poll reveals the Conservatives hold a strong lead in the North Island—Powell River riding. Among the 402 eligible voters surveyed between April 17 and April 19, 45% said they intend to vote for Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn.

NDP candidate Tanille Johnston trails in second with 23%, followed by Liberal contender Jennifer Lash at 13%. Both Jessica Wegg of the Green Party and Paul Macknight of the People’s Party received 2% support, while independent candidate Glen Staples sits at 1%. Meanwhile, 15% of voters remain undecided.

There is some good news for retiring MP Rachel Blaney whose performance was approved by 51% of the respondents. (40% disapproved.)

Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party is the top-rated federal leader among voters in this constituency, with 53% support. He is followed by Liberal leader Mark Carney at 42%, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh at 41%, Green Party co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault at 27%, and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier at 19%.

Poilievre draws strong backing from men (53%), as well as from voters aged 35 to 54 (48%) and those 55 and older (49%). In contrast, Carney leads among younger voters aged 18 to 34, with 45% support, and the two men have an almost equal following among female voters. (Carney 35%, Poilievre 34%).

The poll was sponsored by the David Suzuki Foundation and conducted by Vancouver-based Research Co, led by Mario Canseco, a veteran public opinion researcher since 2003. Canseco is a regular political commentator and columnist for Glacier Media, with work published in the Vancouver Sun, Globe and Mail, and National Observer.

Canseco also carried out a poll in Cowichan—Malahat—Langford riding, where 36% of respondents say they will cast a ballot for Conservative candidate Jeff Kibble. Incumbent MP Alistair MacGregor of the New Democratic Party would receive 29% of the vote and Blair Herbert of the Liberal Party 19%. The Greens would receive 5% and 11% of the respondents are undecided.

In related news, Research co also carried out a National survey which found that 43% of decided voters would vote Liberal as opposed to 38% for the Conservatives. 

This fits a pattern that all but one Canadian pollster has been reporting this week. The exception being Mainstreet Research, which reported a Conservative victory in 2 out of 3 surveys.

If the election were to take place today CBC Polltracker, which draws upon the data from all polls, states the odds of a Liberal victory are 96%. 338Canada states the odds are 90%. Both companies state the most likely scenario is the Liberals will form a majority government. 

On Vancouver Island, 338Canada’s projection is that the four northern ridings will turn Conservative, but the only ‘CPC Safe seat’ (which means victory is almost certain) is North Island Powell River. 

The three south Vancouver Island ridings are all ‘toss-ups’, but the Conservatives have a slim lead in Saanich-Gulf Islands* and Esquimalt, Saanich – Sooke, and the Liberals are ahead by a nose in Victoria.

Links of Interest:

• The State of the Race in North Island—Powell River – Research cor
• Tight Race in North Island–Powell River: Strategic Voters favouring Tanille Johnson – Cortes Currents
• Articles about the 2025 election
• Articles about, or mentioning, Aaron Gunn.
• Articles about or mentioning, Tanille Johnson.
• Articles about or mentioning, Jennifer Lash.
• Articles about, or mentioning, Jessica Wegg.

Top image credit: Parliament Buildings in Ottawa – Photo by Sarah Baxter on Unsplash

*Correction: In the initial broadcast I mistakenly reported Elizabeth May was projected as leading in Saanich-Gulf Islands, she is actually projected as trailing by 1% .

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