If there were an election today, the polls show that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party would probably form the next government. This isn’t what is necessarily going to happen. I like to think of polls as ‘point in time’ snapshots which may be 100% accurate right now, but the situation can be very different tomorrow. 

One of the trends I have noticed on 338Canada, which gleans data from many polls, is that support for the Liberals has been tacking upwards since Trudeau resigned (6 points), while support for the Conservatives and NDP has gone down (4 points each). If the Liberals pick a popular leader, we can expect their popularity to rise even higher in the polls – all of which is just to say that the as yet undeclared election is too far away to be certain.  

Anyway Max Thaysen, one of our thought leaders here on Cortes, has been watching what Donald Trump, a Conservative leader in the United States, is doing and getting anxious about what this latest rendition of Canada’s Conservative Party might be like if it comes to power.   

Continue reading Donald Trump, Canada’s Conservatives and uncertainties of the 2025 election →