A red Liberal, Orange NDP, blue Conservative and Green paryt sign on a street corner
Politics

Will there be a spring election in 2026?

Once again, the polls suggest Mark Carney’s government could win a majority if there were an election right now. 338Canada suggests the Liberals could win as many as 185 seats, while the Conservatives shrink back to 125. In North Island–Powell River, Aaron Gunn is still projected as the winner with 36% of the popular vote, according to 338Canada, but the Liberals and NDP are right behind him with 30% each. Some believe Canada may have a spring election in 2026.

Gunn said, “If I were a betting man, I would bet there’d be an election within the next two years for sure, but this spring – we’ll see. I think it will be up to Prime Minister Carney and the Liberal government. Speaking as a Conservative, I don’t think we’re going to force an election this spring.”

(Image: Canada Votes – Photo by Can Pac Swire via Flickr CC BY SA, 2.0)

Jennifer Lash – Screenshot from previous interview

Jennifer Lash, the Liberal candidate in our riding during the last election, explained, “When you have a minority government, there’s always speculation about whether there’s going to be an election or not. There’s a lot of talk, but I think that’s also a conversation that’s happening very much inside the Ottawa bubble of what’s going to happen.”

Why there might not be a Spring election in 2026

“I think there are two things we need to look at really carefully. One is, I don’t think Canadians really want to go back to the polls. It’s expensive; it’s time consuming. I think in general, if Canadians feel that government is functioning and getting the job done, then they would like to see the work being done as opposed to spending time in an election.”

“The other thing is, in the past week both the Conservatives and the Liberals have talked about how they’re going to work more collaboratively to try to get some key pieces of legislation through — pieces that could have been confidence votes and caused the House to fall if they didn’t have the votes.”

“I think they’re all hands on deck right now to try to avoid an election and get through some of these key pieces that need to be done in order to help us deal with this rupture that we’re going through, as the Prime Minister calls it. Having said that, things happen. If the Conservatives start to block things and it becomes very challenging for this government to get anything done, I could see the Prime Minister going to the Governor General and saying, ‘We need to have another election because this House, as it’s currently formatted, is not being effective and we can’t run the country.'”

Aaron Gunn in Campbell River – courtesy his website

(Note: As the Liberals only won Terrebonne by one vote, the court ruled there should be a re-election.)

Aaron Gunn: “We’re going to oppose bills that we think are bad for Canada. We’re going to continue to try to work with the government to make some of their bills better and work together to pass legislation that — So we passed Bill C-5 last summer with them to fast-track major natural resource projects that we deem are in the national interest. We’ve been working with them. Some bail reform legislation, which we think doesn’t go far enough, but is better than nothing on the Justice Committee. We’ll continue to oppose bad legislation and support good legislation on a case-by-case basis, but we’re not looking to force an election.”

Conservative Town Hall Meetings

Nevertheless, Gunn has launched a series of town hall meetings throughout North Island–Powell River and may even come to Cortes Island.

In the associated press release, he states, “I believe that the most important conversations don’t happen in Ottawa, they happen in our communities. Connecting with my constituents and hearing directly about the issues that matter most to them is crucial in ensuring I am able to do the best job I can in representing them in the nation’s capital.”

Jennifer Lash: “After him hiding from all the constituents except for his Conservative base during the election, I’m glad that he’s finally getting out there and people can ask him the questions that they wanted to ask during last April when we held five debates throughout the entire riding and he missed every single one. So I’m glad that he’s holding them and I’m hoping that people from all parties attend, no matter your political leanings, because I don’t think that they should be a political rally. I think it should be a moment for accountability.”

“I watch Aaron Gunn, I read his stuff, and what I see is a ‘gotcha’ type of journalism used to stir up fear, misrepresent information, and divide our communities and perpetuate racism, particularly towards Indigenous people.”

Gunn said he wasn’t concerned about his party’s recent dip in the polls. “The polls could move quickly and they were quite close up until two or three weeks ago. The Liberals have had a bit of a bump here recently, but I also find people aren’t paying that close attention until the election is called and then they really tune in. It would be a different election than it was last time, and there’s always a degree of uncertainty.”

The NDP and Liberal Challengers

Tanille Johnston – courtesy Vote Tanille

Tanille Johnston, the NDP candidate for North Island–Powell River in the last election, is currently one of five candidates for leadership of the NDP. In an interview with the CBC, only two days ago, she stated Canada needs a wealth tax, a guaranteed livable basic income, plus childcare investments to get healthcare workers back on the job. She advocates reinvesting in Canada—reducing reliance on the U.S., removing interprovincial trade barriers, and pursuing quick-win infrastructure projects that create jobs. The final debate for that race will be tomorrow, and on March 29 the party will pick its next leader at its annual convention in Winnipeg. If Johnston wins, the leader of the NDP will be a candidate in NIPR during the next Federal election. 

Cortes Currents asked Lash, “If we have an election this spring, are you running?”

Lash replied, “If there’s an election this spring, yes, I would run.”

Links of Interest:

Top image credit: 2025 campaign signs on a Cortes Island street corner – Roy L Hales; graphs compiled by Roy L Hales from info on 338Canada and Changes in Membership 45th parliament – Parliament of Canada

Sign-up for Cortes Currents email-out:

To receive an emailed catalogue of articles on Cortes Currents, send a (blank) email to subscribe to your desired frequency: