A smiling David Eby circulating through a group of female supporters

Chances of an NDP Victory

A day before the election, 338Canada’s projections suggest there may be an NDP majority. 

338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding’s history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 previous elections.  They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error, 6% of the time and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races. (They predict the outcome in each riding.)

This prediction for the upcoming election was made on October 16: 

  • 49 seats for the NDP 
  • and 42 for the Conservatives. 

As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), these numbers are far from certain.  

Poster courtesy NDP website

The NDP need 47 seats to form a majority government. 

They are especially vulnerable in the 5 ridings where their lead is within the margin of error. This means their number of seats could (but probably won’t) sink to 44. 

The Conservative lead is especially vulnerable in 10 ridings, which means their total number of seats could be as low as 32. 

‘North Island’ is one of the ridings where the Conservatives have a slight lead, but the race is so close 338Canada is calling it a ‘toss up.’ 

The popular vote for: 

  • Andy Kindy was projected at 44%, 
  • Michele Babchuk at 43% 
  • and Nic Dedeluk 13%.
  • As the margin of error between Kindy and Babchuk is 7%, either of them could win.

The Green Party is expected to take 2 ridings (‘Saanich North and the Islands’ and Furstenau’s own ‘Victoria-Beacon Hill’ riding) could take 3 and it is possible they may take 4. They are only 2% behind the Conservatives in West Vancouver Sea to Sky, which means that race is still a ‘toss up’ and they are 6% behind the NDP in Furstenau’s old Cowichan Valley riding.

Overall, 338Canada is stating the Conservatives could still win, but gives them only a 20% chance.  

They gave the NDP a 69% chance of victory and a 5% chance this will only be a minority government.

Of course if a large number of NDP supporters stay home, as happened when Christy Clark was elected in 2011, the Conservatives could win. 

According to a recent Angus Reid poll older men are more likely to vote Conservative, while women and males under the age of 34 tend to support the NDP.

Top image credit: David Eby on the campaign trail – courtesy BC NDP via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

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