
A day before the election, 338Canada’s projections suggest there may be an NDP majority.
338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding’s history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 previous elections. They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error, 6% of the time and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races. (They predict the outcome in each riding.)
This prediction for the upcoming election was made on October 16:
- 49 seats for the NDP
- and 42 for the Conservatives.
As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), these numbers are far from certain.
Continue reading Chances of an NDP Victory