Tag Archives: Michele Babchuk

Politics

Kindy elected in North Island Riding; Majority still within sight for both NDP and Conservatives

Editor’s Note: According to the Cortes Marketer, 316 Cortes Island residents voted for Michele Babchuk. The Conservative candidate, Anna Kindy, received 102 votes – the highest number of Conservative votes for years. Green party candidate Nic Dedeluk only received 80 votes, most likely because many people who would have normally voted Green decided to vote strategically.

The results of yesterday’s election are still too close to call. As of 4:27 AM this morning, Global News reported that the winner has yet to be declared in 7 ridings. The NDP and Conservatives are still both within sight of forming a majority government.

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Politics

Chances of an NDP Victory

A day before the election, 338Canada’s projections suggest there may be an NDP majority. 

338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding’s history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 previous elections.  They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error, 6% of the time and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races. (They predict the outcome in each riding.)

This prediction for the upcoming election was made on October 16: 

  • 49 seats for the NDP 
  • and 42 for the Conservatives. 

As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), these numbers are far from certain.  

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Politics

Michele Babchuk Meets With Cortes Island Voters

Recording by Bryan McKinnon; Broadcast and text by Roy L Hales.

NDP incumbent Michele Babchuk came to Cortes Island Saturday, October 12, in the second in a series of meet the candidate events organized by the Climate Action Network. 

There is not room to unpack close to two hours of fact filled conversation into this half hour, but the full podcast is at the bottom of this page and here are some highlights.  

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Politics

How the election might have turned out, if it had been on Sunday October 13.

338Canada’s latest projection, taken on Sunday October 13, shows the NDP may be heading towards a majority government. 

The NDP were leading in 49 ridings, but in 6 of these only by a narrow margin.

The Conservative Party of BC was leading in 42 ridings, but in 7 by a nose.

Our own North Island riding is one of the the latter. Conservative candidate Anna Kindy is currently projected as a nose ahead of incumbent Michele Babchuk, 45% to 43%. As the margin of error for these projections is 7%, it is actually too close to call.

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Politics

A Cortes Island view: the local election campaign on September 30

338Canada’s latest projection for North Island Riding, taken on September 30, shows the Conservative party of BC having just taken the lead in the popular vote. Nineteen days from the election, they may currently be supported by 47% of the electorate as opposed to 42% for the NDP. The media website uses data from recent polls and the riding’s history. They have covered 13 general elections and, so far, 338Canada claims to have successfully identified the winner in 1,657 electoral districts 89.9% of the time. That said, this is essentially a ‘point in time’ analysis and yesterday showed these two parties virtually tied.

 “We know this is going to be a really close election, so we’re rolling up our sleeves and we’re not taking anything for granted,” said Michele Babchuk, the NDP candidate and current MLA for our riding. 

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