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Politics

Liberals betting on a Carney swell of support in North Island-Powell River


Editor’s Note: 338Canada’s latest projection shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied in terms of the popular vote, but in terms of seats it is 177 to 132, respectively. If he can hold or lengthen that lead, Mark Carney will be forming a majority government. In our riding, the race has been between the NDP and Conservatives for decades. Thus it is a bit of a shock to find the Liberals and NDP in a statistical tie for second place – separated by (3%) less than the projection’s margin of error (5-6%). It is going to be really interesting to see what 338Canada’s next projection will say both in our riding and for our nation. 

Canada’s National Observer, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

The federal Liberal candidate in northern Vancouver Island is confident the surge of support behind Prime Minister Mark Carney will boost her chances in a riding that historically leans orange or blue. 

Jennifer Lash, the candidate for North Island-Powell River riding, noted Carney, a former governor for the Bank of Canada and more recently for the Bank of England, is laser-focused on the economy.

“He is, by far, the best federal political leader that we have to keep a steady hand on the tiller as we navigate the very stormy waters that Donald Trump is stirring up,” she said. 

Polls conducted on the eve of Carney’s win show federal Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s significant lead has dissolved, with the Liberals and Tories currently tied for voter support at 37 per cent each. 

Lash suggested that as a potential Liberal MP for the riding, she’d have a seat at the federal table to advocate for her riding’s specific needs, something that’s more effective than being an opposition MP with the NDP having little chance of forming government.

Lash’s most recent work has been as a senior policy advisor to the federal ministry of environment and climate change Canada. She is also the founder of the Living Oceans Society, a B.C. science-based marine conservation group. 

As a riding resident living for close to three decades in the village of Sointula on Malcolm Island, she understands the challenges faced by rural communities and can ensure their interests are addressed when it comes to the impacts of potential tariffs, Lash said. 

Tariffs and trade war a priority

Like Canadians everywhere, voters are anxious about how tariffs are going to affect the economy and people’s livelihoods in the riding. 

“How we ensure that people are kept whole during this time is the number one issue for us,” she said.

The Liberal Party will concentrate on uplifting community strengths and Canadian unity in contrast to divisive Conservative tactics, she said. 

“Conservatives are using tried-and-true populist techniques where they discredit experts like economists and scientists, and then use fear to whip up this frenzy of anger that’s really tearing away at our communities,” Lash said. 

“People are really starting to see how that’s playing out in the United States, and they’re realizing they don’t want that here.” 

The Liberals would cooperate with the province to reduce dependency on U.S. markets for logging and the fishing sector and ensure support is there for workers in industries hard hit by tariffs. She’d also work to continue diversifying the riding’s economy and find ways of keeping more revenue from industry like forestry within the community. 

Other top goals are to assist and support small businesses and entrepreneurs in the region as well as addressing the ongoing healthcare crisis by attracting more doctors and nurses to the riding’s communities. 

She and the Liberals remain committed to reconciliation with Canada’s Indigenous people and First Nations within the riding, Lash said, emphasizing that the Liberals have worked hard to ensure reconciliation is internalized in the federal government.

“We cannot afford to walk that back, both from a moral perspective or from an economic perspective,” Lash said. 

“We need to renew that relationship so that we have healthy, vibrant communities going forward.” 

Federal popularity effects 

The riding has been dominated by the federal NDP for the last decade, and before that by Conservatives. However, Lash feels Carney, who became prime minister Friday, will draw votes regardless of past election results. 

“We’ll make more than a dent [with voters],” Lash said, noting on the doorstep and in communications, that people who typically vote NDP and Conservatives are considering switching it up.

However, there are no guarantees the popularity of the federal Liberal leader will filter down to the Vancouver Island riding. 

Current NDP MP Rachel Blaney, who isn’t running in the upcoming election, has held the riding since 2015. Blaney and the NDP won the riding last election with 39.5 per cent of the vote, followed closely by the Conservatives at 36 per cent, and the Liberals trailing third with just over 13 per cent. 

In B.C., the federal Conservatives still have a healthy 10 point spread over the Liberals — though the Tories took a big hit in the weeks before Carney assumed the Liberal leadership mantle. Conservative voter support now sits at 40 per cent, down from 49 per cent at the end of January. In the same timeframe, Liberal support rose dramatically to 30 per cent up from 18 per cent. 

However, on the ground in North Island-Powell River, Conservatives are still predicted to take the riding. 

Lash is undeterred. 

“Mark Carney has been able to draw support from across the spectrum of voters,” she said. 

Other North Island — Powell River candidates are: Tanille Johnston (NDP), Aaron Gunn (Conservative), Jessica Wegg (Green), and Paul MacKnight (PPC).  

Check back for more profiles and ongoing coverage of the federal election in B.C.’s coastal ridings.

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