Several years ago the editors of The Guardian Weekly, an independent British news magazine noted for its objective credibility, decided that the global warming subject was serious enough to warrant special coverage—not to understate the seriousness of the situation, their preference has been to call it “global heating”. They have not disappointed. In their May 17, 2024, edition they reported on a survey they undertook to sample the opinion of hundreds of climate scientists about their personal assessment of our situation. Their assessment is sobering.
The Guardian’s survey received replies from 380 of the 843 lead authors of the reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 2018. The very high rate of return suggests that the scientists were concerned enough about our situation to respond to a voluntary survey. Indeed, concern is what they expressed.
Only 6% thought that the global temperature could be held below or at 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, the aspirational target that was agreed to by the international community at the United Nations’ COP meetings. The majority, 77%, thought that the temperature rise would be at least 2.5°C. Almost half, 42%, expected the rise to be 3°C or higher.
Their opinions seem to be justified. Reality has destroyed most of their optimism. In 30 years of trying, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise rather than fall—in 2024 they might level out at about 40 billion tonnes per year.
The temperature graph from 1940 to 2024 provided by The Guardian shows some stability until about 1975, although 1958 showed the first day of 1.0°C above the global average pre-industrial level. The first day above 1.5°C was in 2015, with 2023 the first day above 2.0°C, and 2024 with four consecutive days above 2.0°C. In summary, the global temperatures are rising rapidly and seem to be accelerating. As for global averages, we are currently at 1.26°C above pre-industrial levels, and experiencing weather anomalies that are responsible for both local and widespread havoc. A temperature rise of 2.5°C or higher that is expected by the climate scientists would take us into totally unpredictable territory. No one knows if civilization as we know it can survive under these circumstances.
Scientists are human beings, so they respond accordingly to what is likely to happen. The following is a sample of their responses to the future that they anticipate for themselves and us. They range from depression and heroism to fear and blame.
- “[Despite depression] we keep doing [the science], because we have to do it, so [the powerful] cannot say that they didn’t know.”
- “[Our prediction] is really bleak, but I think it’s realistic. It’s just the fact that we’re not taking the action that we need to.”
- “I often face moments of despair, but it is useful to continue the fight.”
- “The world’s response to date [to climate change] is reprehensible—we live in an age of fools.”
- “I have devoted my research life to [climate science] and it has not made a damn bit of difference. I started feeling, well, I love singing, maybe I’ll become a nightclub singer.”
- “I feel broken and hopeless.”
- “[Climate change] is an existential threat to humanity and [lack of] political will and vested corporate interests are preventing us from addressing it. I do worry about the future my children are inheriting.”
- “I am scared. I don’t see how we can get out of this mess.”
When these scientists were asked what individual people could do to ameliorate the crisis, the first choice of 76% was voting for politicians who were willing to take strong climate action. Their second suggestion, at 56%, was to reduce flying. Flying is the single most polluting activity that an individual can control, “with only about one in 10 flying at all.” As for domestic travel, try to use electric powered public transport. Third, at 30%, was cutting meat consumption, which is a huge source of greenhouse gases. Having fewer children came in at 12% of responders.
This survey of climate scientists is sobering. It’s yet another warning in the litany of many. But, as usual, is anyone else paying attention?
Ray Grigg for Sierra Quadra
Top image credit: Graphs showing correlation of measured global average temperature, from several different scientific organizations – by RCraig09 (Own Work) via Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)