We are just beginning to register the full implications of climate change, and if we take a moment to think about them, they are sobering. A feature in The Economist (April 13, 2024) is particularly disquieting because of its assessment of the risk to our homes, the largest single investment that we have and the place where we go for peace, privacy and security.
But take note of the frequency and severity of miscellaneous weather events that are threatening, damaging or destroying homes. Storms, floods, wildfires and coastal erosion are just a sample of the catastrophes that can impact where we live. By The Economist’s estimate, “About a tenth of the world’s residential property by value is under threat, …and by one estimate, climate change and the fight against it could wipe out 9% of the value of the world’s housing by 2050—which amounts to $25 trillion.” As The Economist points out, “Property is the world’s most important asset class, accounting for an estimated two-thirds of global wealth. Homes are at the heart of many of the world’s most important financial markets… .” A wholesale threat to them threatens the entire financial system.
Some places on the planet are clearly aware of the risks of climate change. Villages and communities in northern Canada know about the impact of forest fires. The Fort McMurray blaze in 2016 burned 2,579 homes and caused $3.58 billion in insured damage, the most expensive in Canada’s history. Areas in California have been wiped clean of homes by wildfires. Towns in the US have been flCalifornia wildattened by tornadoes. But Germany didn’t expect to have freak storms wash away entire streets—$40 billion in damages. England and Brazil are subject to the same surprises. Nor was Derna in Libya prepared for a wall of water that washed a swath of the city and 11,300 people into the Mediterranean. And to have Dubai, Bahrain and Oman flooded by torrential rain is more than unusual. Northern Italy was hit by a surprise thunderstorm in the summer of 2023—hailstones as big as 19 cm in diameter (7.5 inches, if you still think in imperial terms) denting cars and breaking tiles, skylights and solar panels, at an insurance cost of $4.8 billion in damages.
Some damage to homes is caused by quite unexpected climate-related events. In London, for example, 1.8 million homes are expected to suffer cracking by the repeated drying and subsidence of the clay upon which they are built. In Amsterdam, because of the boggy soil upon which homes were built, wooden pilings were driven into the muck to support the structures. This worked fine as long as the pilings stayed wet and away from oxygen. Now, however, with drier and hotter weather, the water level is dropping, the pilings are beginning to rot, and the houses are beginning to collapse. Remedial work per house could cost more than $100,000.
In Florida, which seems to be a state in a state of denial, real estate values continue to soar, despite the threat of rising sea levels and a frequent battering by hurricanes, storm surges, and tropical deluges that cause extensive damage. According to Insurify, a Florida insurance company, “the average annual premium for a typical single-family home in the state is likely to hit $11,759 this year.” To prevent a financial catastrophe for homeowners and to keep the real estate market from collapsing, the Florida government is exposed to $423 billion by insuring homes that “other insurers deem too risky to cover.”
These staggeringly large sums of money are an indicator of what presently exists and what lies ahead for humanity, for its security, and for its prosperity, if we do not immediately and radically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, the
$25 trillion in expected damage to homes by 2050—just 26 years from now—is what is already slated because we can’t go back and reset the climate situation. We have been warned for half a century that we are on such a trajectory. Even during the last 30 years of concerted effort by the United Nations, emissions have continued to go up rather than down. As we are learning, no place is immune to the consequences.
Even in remote and bucolic Quadra Island we are feeling the effects of climate change. For example, house insurance rates have been increasing dramatically over the last several years, forcing some people to reconsider the security of such coverage. The Strathcona Regional District, the Discovery Islander and Bird’s Eye offer frequent public reminders that homeowners should be taking protective measures against the risk of forest fires. The old innocence is gone. Meanwhile, hot and dry summers threaten the supply of potable water, particularly from surface wells, but drilled wells may also be at risk.
All weather extremes are directly correlated to the rise in global land and ocean temperatures, with the resulting increase in humidity, storm severity and heat events. The statistics are making this trend abundantly clear. More worrisome, perhaps, than the pervasive threat to our homes, is how easily we adapt to this new climate reality, a psychological dynamic that renders us much too docile as consumers and citizens. If we think that addressing climate change is expensive, the study in The Economist is giving us the cost of the alternative.
Ray Grigg for Sierra Quadra
Top image credit: Aerial view of the Wennington wildfire, London, 19 July 2022. Image made by Harrison Healy (Own Work) via Wikimedia (CC BY 3.0)