By Matt Simmons, The Narwhal, Local Journalism Initiative reporter

At least a quarter of major fish stocks in Canada are in decline, but efforts to  rebuild them  — such as closing fisheries or setting catch limits — are  often met with strong opposition due to negative socioeconomic effects.  Now a new study by University of British Columbia researchers shows the  short-term financial pain can lead to long-term gain — and that pain can  be eased by providing fishers with social and economic assistance.

Gains over 30 years

The study, published in the September 2020 issue of Ocean & Coastal Management, found the most optimistic rebuilding scenario would lead to economic  gains of up to 10 times above the status quo after 30 years for five of  the six studied species. The analysis also found the gains would  continue to climb over 50 and 100 years.

“If you  look at societal, national or provincial problems, the struggle between  the short term and the long term is huge. Most of us think of today,  today, today,” co-author and professor of bioeconomics Rashid Sumaila  said in an interview. 

Sumaila said the First Nations concept of creating sustainability over multiple generations inspired his work. 

“We shouldn’t discount the fish of our grandchildren.” 

Rebuilding would result in gains for Pacific herring, losses for yelloweye rockfish

In the  study, the researchers looked at six Canadian fish stocks — Pacific and  Atlantic herring, Atlantic cod, Atlantic redfish, west coast Vancouver  Island chinook and Vancouver Island yelloweye rockfish — under six  scenarios. 

The  species were selected for their role in commercial and recreational  fisheries as well as their importance to First Nations. Apart from  Pacific herring, they are all in decline, according to Fisheries and  Oceans Canada. (However, groups such as Pacific Wild claim there is insufficient data to say Pacific herring is not in decline.)

The  researchers considered if the fisheries were closed or if a low level of  catch was permitted and if the fish had fast, slow or expected  biological responses. The length of the closures and restriction periods  depended on the species and speed of recovery, ranging from a few years  to several decades. The researchers then projected the catch for each  stock under each scenario for 30, 50 and 100 years and calculated the  net benefit. 

Resume fishing at higher levels

The study showed that in most cases, closing a fishery would result in higher  economic gains than setting low-catch limits. While closing a fishery  leads to higher economic losses at the outset than reducing the catch,  when the species rebounds fishers can resume harvesting at higher levels  than they could if the fishery was left open to a low catch. 

The  Pacific herring fishery showed significant gains in every scenario.  Costs associated with fishing for herring are extremely high, so any  increase in the population will correspondingly increase profits. 

Chinook,  on the other hand, saw negligible economic gains or losses under the  different scenarios because the species is slow to rebound and the  fishery fetches an estimated $57.5 million per year. Closing the chinook  fishery, even for just a few years, means those losses would have to be  made up by increased harvests as the population rebuilds. 

Rockfish showed losses under all of the scenarios. This is because the species  has a significantly longer life cycle — about 18 years — than the other  species studied. But Sumaila said that “given enough time and patience,”  rockfish could recover enough to yield a positive economic benefit. 

“When you  have slow recovery, economists will tell you it’s not worthwhile. I  really struggle with this,” he said. “If you leave nature alone, nature  will come back … except if you destroy it completely.”

Norwegian example

Sumaila  points to the Norwegian spring spawning herring. In the 1980s, he said  the fish population was reduced to “almost zero,” despite a 1970  moratorium being placed on harvesting the species during the spawning  season. It took over 20 years for the population to begin to bounce back  and now, 50 years later, the fishery is thriving once again. 

Sockeye Salmon

Conservation  scientist Michael Price said it’s hard to get people to look far into  the future but agrees it’s necessary. “You do need to look at these  longer timeframes.”

Price studied over 100 years of historical Skeena sockeye salmon data to build a better understanding of how a species responds over time.  “There was a sockeye crash in the mid-1950s,” he said, “and 65 years  later we’re seeing signs they have increased in abundance, but they’re  nowhere near what they were in the 1940s.”

Price is now studying salmon populations in Wet’suwet’en territory in northwest  B.C., incorporating economics into the study in hopes it will have more  impact with decision-makers. He said applying economic analysis to a  conservation issue is “a step in the right direction.”

Economic  modelling isn’t without limitations, Sumaila admitted, adding that there  could be additional losses not accounted for, such as the loss of  processing facilities and markets for species that aren’t harvested. 

Fish stocks in urgent need of rebuilding 

The six  species in the study are all vitally important for supporting  socioeconomic well-being in Canadian Pacific and Atlantic communities,  according to the authors. The three Pacific fish species are  particularly important as they play a key role in the social, cultural  and food practices of First Nations. 

However,  they all face a range of threats. While the analysis assumed that  fishing is the primary factor driving exploitation of fish stock  populations, climate change, plastic pollution in oceans and industrial  development both upstream in watersheds and on the coast are responsible  for additional pressures on numerous fish species. As The Narwhal  recently reported, Fraser River sockeye are currently experiencing one of the lowest returns on record. 

The importance of starting to rebuild Canadian fisheries now can’t be overstated, Price said. 

“We’re  having a hard time making a dramatic shift and saying enough is enough,”  he said. “It’s almost like we’re waiting for the final blow to make  that call. And then what else are you going to do except say there’s no  fishing because there’s no fish?”

Fisheries and Oceans Canada slow to implement rebuilding plans

In June 2019, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) made a suite of changes to the Fisheries Act, including mandating that depleted fish stocks require rebuilding plans. 

According to the federal agency’s 2018 Fisheries Sustainability Survey, only 58 of 177 major stocks assessed were at healthy levels.  

In an  emailed statement, the federal agency told The Narwhal its focus is on  rebuilding stocks for the 19 species listed as critical on the survey, including Pacific and Atlantic herring, Atlantic cod and yelloweye rockfish.

Since the 2018 survey, Fisheries and Oceans Canada has completed rebuilding plans  for six species, and a further two have improved to the point where they  are no longer in the critical zone. 

“For  the remaining priority stocks without rebuilding plans, DFO has  specific fishery management measures in place, based on the best  available science,” the statement said. “These measures will ensure that  the limited fishing of the stocks does not compromise their  rebuilding.”

In advance  of the changes to the Fisheries Act, the federal government committed  $107 million to support the rebuilding efforts. “To contribute to better  managed fisheries, these resources will increase scientific capacity  for stock assessment of Canada’s fish stocks,” the statement said.

This is  important because 41 per cent of major fish stocks in Canada are  classified as uncertain, which means experts don’t know enough about  them to gauge whether their populations are healthy or threatened.  Without additional scientific data, these species will continue to be  harvested, albeit on a cautious basis. 

Critics say the rebuilding plans that have been developed fall short, pointing in particular to an absence of legally binding requirements and a lack of specific management strategies.

Sumaila  hopes people in the fishing sector can use the information from his  study to pressure the government to implement the rebuilding plans that  have been mandated. 

He  explained that it can be a hard sell to close an entire fishery for an  extended period of time, but new organizations like the B.C.Young  Fishermen’s Network are willing to listen. 

“A lot of  young people say, ‘Look, we want to be able to fish but in this smart,  intelligent, sustainable way.’ It meets societal and food needs without  wrecking the fisheries.”

Social and economic support for fishers key to rebuilding stocks 

More than  5,000 fishers — about 12 per cent of all Canadian harvesters — are  involved in the six stocks examined in the study and closing fisheries  or setting catch limits can have a range of negative effects on them,  from wiping out their income to harming their physical and mental health  by eliminating an important food source and cultural practice. 

Both Price  and Sumaila warned that continuing to commercially harvest a declining  fishery doesn’t ultimately help the fishers in the long term. 

“Are we  really doing people any favours by helping them limp along?” Price  asked. “For salmon, some years there’s a commercial fishery, some years  there isn’t — people are kind of just hanging on life support.” 

But both also agree there needs to be support for the industry. 

To mitigate negative effects, Sumaila suggested the federal government implement economic and social  assistance programs to help fishers transition out of fishing or provide  them with alternative sources of income during the rebuilding period.

Sumaila said he was involved in a study of Hong Kong fisheries struggling with overfishing and over 75 per cent of the fishers  surveyed said they would be happy to transition out of the industry  given sufficient support. In that study, the transition model included  supporting fishers to launch ecotourism operations and become whale- and  dolphin-watching guides. 

“If we  could help people to find alternative jobs, this could lead to an  amazing change, socially and ecologically. Meanwhile, we’re giving out  subsidies to help them go farther and deeper,” he said, referring to subsidizing fuel costs for large-scale commercial fisheries. 

Sumaila said closing a fishery for several years or decades will always be challenging, but the rewards are there waiting. “The  ultimate goal is to stop harming the fish and their habitat and their  ecosystem so they can regenerate year in and year out.”