The seven most recent polls show Mark Carney’s Liberals ahead in what has largely become a two party election. Both 338Canada and CBC Poll Tracker project a Liberal majority, if the election were held today.
“The Liberals are continuing to climb in the polls and are widening their lead over the Conservatives, putting them deeper into majority territory. The Conservatives are holding their vote but it is the steep slide for the New Democrats, who have dropped into the single-digits in popular support, that is contributing to the rise in the Liberals’ numbers,” wrote Éric Grenier on the Poll Tracker website.
“Not only do polls continue to show momentum for the incumbent Liberals, but new data shows Mark Carney now leads Poilievre in several other metrics—suggesting the LPC may not have reached its ceiling just yet,” stated Phillipe J Fournier of 338Canada.
Mario Canseco, President of Vancouver based Research Co, found, “More than half of Canadians (57%) approve of the way Mark Carney has handled his duties as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. The rating is lower for Conservative and Official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre (46%, -6), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (38%, -1), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (30%), Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet (25%, -2) and People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier (also 25%, +2).”
David Valentin from Liaison Strategies stated, “Regionally, the Liberals continue to post strong numbers. They’re sitting at 60% in Atlantic Canada, 38% in Quebec (holding a 10-point lead over the Bloc Québécois), 46% in Ontario (a 7-point edge over the Conservatives), and 39% in British Columbia (leading the Conservatives by 2 points). They were ahead in BC yesterday and have repeated that again today, which could signal the start of a regional trend rather than just a one-off result.”
Canseco added, “Practically one-in-four voters who supported the New Democrats in 2021 (24%) are voting for the Liberals in 2025. The retention rate is significantly higher for the Conservatives (85%) and the Liberals (83%).”
338Canada’s latest projections show the number of NDP seats in BC could shrink from the 13 held after the last election down to Vancouver East, where the incumbent Jenny Kwan is believed to be ahead of Liberal Mark Wiens by 3 points, 38% to 35%.
The Conservatives and Liberals appear to be poised to divide Vancouver Island, displacing the NDP and Greens.
Aaron Gunn is currently projected as 24 points ahead of his closest rivals in North Island Powell River (NIPR). NDP candidate Tanille Johnston and Liberal Jennifer Lash are tied at 23% each. Green Party candidate Jessica Wegg trails far behind at 4%.
The Green party is in danger of losing their last seat in BC. Elizabeth May has represented Saanich Gulf Islands since 2006, but 338Canada currently projects her running third in a very tight race. Liberal candidate David Beckham is in the lead (32%), followed by Cathie Ounstedfoll of the Conservatives (30%) and May (29%).
Only the Liberals and Conservatives are expected to run a candidate in each of Canada’s 343 ridings.
Canseco suggests Liberal numbers could continue to rise as their slate fills out, “More than half of Canadians (53%) say they would “definitely” or “probably” consider voting for the Liberals if they ran a candidate in their constituency. Voting consideration is currently lower for the Conservatives (46%), the New Democrats (35%) and the Greens (25%).”
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