Tag Archives: BC election 2024

Politics

Chances of an NDP Victory

A day before the election, 338Canada’s projections suggest there may be an NDP majority. 

338Canada is a campaign website that uses available polling data, each riding’s history, and population data etc. It predicts the outcome of the election for every riding and has been used in 13 previous elections.  They have been right close to 90% of the time. They were wrong, but still within the margin of error, 6% of the time and totally wrong in 4% out of 1,657 electoral district races. (They predict the outcome in each riding.)

This prediction for the upcoming election was made on October 16: 

  • 49 seats for the NDP 
  • and 42 for the Conservatives. 

As this is based on projections that show the popular vote very close (45% to 43% respectively) and this is within the margin of error (4%), these numbers are far from certain.  

Continue reading Chances of an NDP Victory →
Politics

Candidates are making election promises on behalf of ecosystems that can’t vote

By Sidney Coles, Capital Daily, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

The future of the natural systems we rely on to meet our basic needs—food, water, and shelter is being rolled into campaign promises made by sitting and would-be MLAs across the CRD.  In the run-up to the Oct. 19 election, it’s important to remember that these ecological systems aren’t constrained by riding or ideological boundaries. They will be constrained, however, by environmental policies that impact them, and so impact us all.

Because of their overarching effect on the way we live, work, play, and sustain ourselves, campaign promises concerning the environment and climate should trump all, but they don’t.  It’s understandable that as people struggle to pay rent, mortgage, heating, and grocery bills each month, it’s easy to forget the horrifying impacts of the 2021 heat dome in which 619 people in BC died and the disruptions the washout along the Malahat Highway caused that same year.

Continue reading Candidates are making election promises on behalf of ecosystems that can’t vote →
Education, Health, Housing

‘Tis the season for promises ahead of this weekend’s BC election

By Sidney Coles, Capital Daily, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter

Come election season, politicians seeking reelection or office for the first time make a lot of promises. Some we know they’ll keep. Others? It depends. Politicians make promises because they will impact voters’ beliefs about the policies they will implement if elected and serve as an indicator of their capabilities to govern. Incumbents have the advantage of the rearview mirror. They can ask voters to look at past performance. Even freshmen candidates for an incumbent  party seeking to prove their mettle to constituents can bank on that party’s record, in part or in whole—but that also means being accountable for the promises it has broken. In all cases, promises are a kind of promissory note in exchange for representation.

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Politics

Michele Babchuk Meets With Cortes Island Voters

Recording by Bryan McKinnon; Broadcast and text by Roy L Hales.

NDP incumbent Michele Babchuk came to Cortes Island Saturday, October 12, in the second in a series of meet the candidate events organized by the Climate Action Network. 

There is not room to unpack close to two hours of fact filled conversation into this half hour, but the full podcast is at the bottom of this page and here are some highlights.  

Continue reading Michele Babchuk Meets With Cortes Island Voters →
Politics

How the election might have turned out, if it had been on Sunday October 13.

338Canada’s latest projection, taken on Sunday October 13, shows the NDP may be heading towards a majority government. 

The NDP were leading in 49 ridings, but in 6 of these only by a narrow margin.

The Conservative Party of BC was leading in 42 ridings, but in 7 by a nose.

Our own North Island riding is one of the the latter. Conservative candidate Anna Kindy is currently projected as a nose ahead of incumbent Michele Babchuk, 45% to 43%. As the margin of error for these projections is 7%, it is actually too close to call.

Continue reading How the election might have turned out, if it had been on Sunday October 13. →